By Steve Vogel
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, December 31, 2001; Page A01

Despite the rout of his al Qaeda terrorist network, Osama bin Laden has likely survived the U.S.-led military campaign and may have escaped into Pakistan, the chairman of the Senate intelligence committee and other U.S. officials said yesterday.

"The latest intelligence we had indicates that the high probabilities are that bin Laden is still alive," Sen. Bob Graham (D-Fla.) said in a television interview. "Where he is, is a question mark. The trail has gone cold as to whether he's still in the caves of Tora Bora or, in fact, has slipped out into Pakistan."

An intelligence official said recently obtained information supported the notion that bin Laden has survived the massive U.S. airstrikes and Afghan attacks on the mountainous enclave of Tora Bora, where he was believed to be along with al Qaeda fighters who retreated there after the collapse of the Taliban regime.

"There were certainly indications last week that would imply that he's alive, but nothing definitive," said the official, who declined to discuss what the clues were. "There's certainly no indication that he's dead, and there's some circumstantial evidence that he's alive."

Concern that bin Laden was not killed during the fighting and has eluded capture continues to plague the U.S. campaign against the al Qaeda network, launched nearly three months ago after the Sept. 11 attacks on New York and Washington. President Bush has said he wants bin Laden apprehended "dead or alive."

A senior defense official said the Pentagon is uncertain about whether bin Laden is alive. "We don't know," the official said. "We have gotten conflicting intelligence reports for weeks."

Graham, who has access to classified briefings, declined during his appearance on CNN's "Late Edition" to discuss the source of the intelligence he said indicates that bin Laden is alive.

Another member of the intelligence committee, Sen. Richard G. Lugar (R-Ind.), appearing on the same program, said that bin Laden "most likely" had escaped into Pakistan, which borders the Tora Bora region.

Pakistani forces are deployed in the region hunting for bin Laden and other al Qaeda fighters, but the area's size and rugged terrain make it impossible to seal off entirely.

The Pakistani foreign minister, Abdul Sattar, warned that escalating tensions with India may force the country to redeploy troops to the Indian border.

"If the situation continues to aggravate, if there is an imminent threat of use of force, Pakistan cannot but think in terms of shifting these forces from the western part to the eastern side -- that is to say, the border with India," Sattar said on "Late Edition."

A noticeably thinner bin Laden appeared in a videotape broadcast last week by the Arab network al-Jazeera. U.S. officials have said the tape was apparently made in early December.

In the hunt for another key figure, Mohammad Omar, a senior defense official said U.S. military commanders are taking seriously reports from Afghanistan that anti-Taliban forces may be planning an offensive to capture the deposed leader of the militant Islamic regime.

"If they do this, we're prepared to support them," the official said.

According to some media reports, Omar may be hiding in a mountainous region northwest of Kandahar, guarded by a force of 2,500 to 3,000 fighters. According to the reports, Afghan officials have said they are mustering a force of fighters from the region to attack the stronghold.

U.S. support for an attack would likely be airstrikes and intelligence, the official said. "You're not going to see a U.S. military offensive," the official added.

U.S. Special Forces have been in the region for some time working in a liaison role with anti-Taliban forces. "They are in and around that area," said Air Force Lt. Col. Martin Compton, a spokesman for the U.S. Central Command in Tampa.

In another development, elements of the Army's 101st Airborne Division, based in Fort Campbell, Ky., have been ordered to deploy into Afghanistan and take control of a base at Kandahar airport, freeing up a U.S. Marines force for other potential missions, defense officials said yesterday.

The size of the new Army deployment was not disclosed, but a Pentagon official said it would be comparable to the Marine force now at the Kandahar airport, which numbers more than 1,000.

The Marines moved into southern Afghanistan in late November, as the Taliban regime crumbled throughout much of Afghanistan. At the Kandahar airport, the Marines have constructed a facility to hold prisoners.

The deployment of the 101st soldiers will "allow the Marines the opportunity to prepare for future missions," said Marine Lt. Col. Mike Humm, a Pentagon spokesman. The Marine expeditionary force will redeploy to ships in the northern Arabian Sea, according to a defense official.

Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld said earlier this month that Marines or Army troops would join the hunt for bin Laden and al Qaeda fighters in the cave complexes around Tora Bora, but the idea is on hold, officials said.

The Marines also could be used if the U.S. launches operations in Somalia or Yemen, two countries in which the U.S. has said al Qaeda is operating.

Humm said the Army airborne troops "will continue combat operations to defeat remaining Taliban and al Qaeda forces, process detainees and secure the Kandahar airfield to allow entry of humanitarian relief supplies and personnel."

In the capital of Kabul, the new Afghan government has reached an agreement with international peacekeepers on how they will function in the coming months, the country's interim foreign minister said, according to the Associated Press.

Multinational troops will be allowed to operate in various Afghan cities, working with Afghan authorities to provide security, said Abdullah, the foreign minister, who uses only one name. But he would not provide further specifics about the deal, which followed long and complicated negotiations both with the peacekeepers and among different factions of the Afghan leadership, the Associated Press reported.

© 2001 The Washington Post Company